On trend: What themes might shape commercial insurance in 2024?
What will be the dominant trends shaping the commercial insurance sector in 2024? Well, it seems that there are quite a few contenders.
They include advances in technology, the climate crisis, changing macroeconomic conditions and cyber-crime.
Let’s take a look at each in turn.
Artificial intelligence
There's a fascinating stat in EY’s Global Insurance Outlook 2024. 52% of insurance CEOs plan significant investments in AI next year.
Interest in artificial intelligence is growing across the industry. It has the potential to serve functions, including underwriting, claims and customer service.
Yet there remain many stumbling blocks to adoption. This is because trust is central to all insurance propositions.
Customers will expect transparency in AI-driven processes involving use of their sensitive data.
According to EY’s report, the validation of data model inputs and outputs are top priorities. As is appropriate labelling of all outputs produced by GenAI apps and interfaces.
The goal is to stop unfair outcomes in coverage, pricing and claims processing.
EY also advises that insurers should resist pressure to adopt AI in haste. Instead, they should focus on building governance processes before installing the technology.
Climate change
It’s very likely that 2023 will go down as the hottest year on record. But with the El Niño warming phenomenon taking hold, it’s possible that 2024 will be even warmer.
For insurers, climate change represents a huge risk as well as an opportunity.
The UN's COP28 climate meeting recently agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”. This could lead to an acceleration in renewable and nuclear energy deployment. All which requires risk management and cover.
Yet, the global surface temperature will continue rising until greenhouse emissions stop. Insurers will need to be mindful of the impacts of increasing natural disasters.
Deloitte’s global insurance outlook advises insurers to move beyond reacting to risks. "Insurers try to prevent losses from happening in the first place", says Deloitte.
The EY Global Insurance Outlook 2024 shares this view. It says the moment requires more than compliance-driven thinking and expanded philanthropy.
EY says product innovation, new business models and “purposeful investments” could unlock growth.
The report adds that insurers could support regulators and public authorities. For instance, in developing strategies to protect societal stability and prosperity.
Macroeconomics
Inflation and interest rates could weigh on business decisions in 2024, slowing growth.
That said, some commentators suggest interest rates could begin falling in the spring.
There are also signs that the cost of construction materials have started to drop. This should bring down the cost of building repair claims.
But there are growing concerns about the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
Attacks on international shipping routes could lead to supply challenges. This might increase costs in other areas.
Michael Gregory, RSA's Director of Underwriting Strategy, says "risk professionals will need to track supply chain risks this year. It's sensible to build dual supply chains where possible, test contingency plans and be alert to the impacts of disruption."
Cyber-crime
While AI will deliver benefits, some analysts say it will increase cyber-security risks.
The shift to cloud computing also represents an opportunity for cyber-criminals. This is due to what some see as an explosion in “attack surfaces”.
Cyber-criminals will also improve their skills to exploit weaknesses across corporate systems.
This will drive calls for tighter regulations, as lawmakers seek to protect businesses. Insurers can play a part by helping to promote cyber-security best practices.
Preparing for another year of change
At RSA Insurance, our experts are keeping a watchful eye on these and other trends.
It’s likely that the big themes of 2023 will continue into the new year.
Leaving the last word to RSA’s Michael Gregory, he said: “Strategic risk management will become more important. This is due to the myriad challenges facing business.
"Discussions about risk assessment, management and transfer will be vital in 2024,” he said.
Also, we’ll be sure to update our partners with insights and advice in the months ahead.
